Colin Symons, CFA on LinkedIn: #market #markets #stockmarket #stocks (2024)

Honey BadgerKenyan protestors stormed parliament after austerity measures proved unpopular.Canadian CPI was 2.9% Y/Y vs. exp. 2.6%. Australian CPI was 4% Y/Y vs. est. 3.8%. Not good, and the US Dollar is bouncing back and hitting highs for the month, which pressures risk assets. Well, unless you're NVDA, the honey badger of assets.The dollar was also aided by the ECB saying more rate cuts this year are reasonable.The Japanese yen crested 160. Wen intervention?Strong 2Y auction, yesterday. Can demand stay strong as supply grows in Q3?FDX gained 13% after beating earnings estimates and issuing strong guidance. That's encouraging for the economy.NVDA jumped 7% to claw back about half of its losses. What next? Probably worth noting that we're seeing carry trade-like action, with either NVDA or DJIA-type stocks balancing the volatility in the other.MU earnings will be a big deal today, with so much focus on all things AI. #market #markets #stockmarket #stocksNot Investment Advice

2

Using macro to inform investing.

The Last Shall Be FirstThe Fed reportedly floated a weaker version of the bank-capital overhaul, which had banks happy.In Europe, Airbus cut delivery guidance and Merck ceased a Phase 3 study for a cancer drug, sending both stocks down about 10%.Japanese PPI was 2.5% Y/Y vs. est. 3%, a great relief to a nation that's continued to struggle with elevated inflation.Crypto currencies have been hit hard, with Bitcoin down 6% over the last week, but are trying to recover. Maybe liquidity isn't so great out there?The Dow and Russell 2000 were leaders, while semiconductors lagged, yesterday, with NVDA down 7% on the day and down 16% from its peak. Admittedly, that just removes some of the downside from this month. From poking around, some of this noise of the last several days may be from the XLK (tech sector ETF) reweighting.)NVDA is trying to come back, up 3%, this morning. Can it recover? Are the rebalancing flows done?#market #markets #stockmarket #stocksNot Investment AdviceTwitter: @TheMarketsGame

2

Could we be seeing a shift?

1

Starting to see more people recognize stalling economic data and liquidity, which increases odds of downside.Still not enough bad news to expect a lasting top, here.

Maybe a shift?

1

Purchasing Manager IndexJobless claims were about the same as last week, at 238K vs. prev. 243K. No big deal, though CA remains as the biggest loser.Housing data was weak. Housing starts were 1277K vs exp. 1385K and Building Permits were 1386K vs. exp. 1455K. Construction jobs tend to be an early warning sign for the jobs market, so this is another sign of an eventual slowdown.Japanese CPI was higher, but not as high as feared, at 2.8% Y/Y vs. exp. 2.9% and 2.5% prev.Japanese PMI slowed from 52.1 to 50.6.European PMIs broadly slowed, perhaps from the political concerns of late. Bit of a global economic slowdown, today.The last month has seen the worst market breadth in 20 years. Last week, tech sector inflows hit a record $8.7B.Big OpEx today. Will it change trends? Also PMI.#market #markets #stockmarket #stocksNot Investment Advice

3

BoostedRetail sales was a miss, at 0.1% m/m vs. est. 0.3%. Core sales were -0.1% vs. est. 0.2%. Last month sales were revised lower, from 0% m/m to -0.2%.Industrial Production was 0.9% m/m vs. exp. 0.4%. Capacity Utilization also went up to 78.7% vs. prev. 78.2%. That gets the Y/Y IP to positive territory, at 0.4%.The CBO moved the 2024 budget deficit from $1.5T to $1.9T. That's a lotta dough.The Swiss cut rates for a second time, this year, which seems to be boosting sentiment.France had a successful bond sale, the first since the election mess last week.China weakened the yuan to the lowest of the year as they combat deflation.NVDA became the world's most valuable company. What will people say about that in ten years?BoE has the UK rate announcement. Their CPI just printed at 2%, at target, but Services inflation remains high.#market #markets #stockmarket #stocksNot Investment Advice

2

Still Reflationary, mid-term.Can OpEx change the trend?

1