ZMC on LinkedIn: #usmarketupdate #gdp #employmentreport #nationaldebt #fiscalpolicy… (2024)

US Market Update - June 25, 2024As investors eagerly await the release of the PCE data, the market sentiment remains optimistic in the short to medium term. Analysts believe the markets will close at new highs for Q2.This week is relatively slow on the fundamental front, so let's discuss key points to better understand the current state of the U.S. economy:- Economic Growth: The U.S. economy has experienced modest growth of approximately 3% in Q2. Despite persistent inflation and high interest rates, the GDP grew by 1.3% in Q1 2024. Forecasts predict slower growth for the remainder of the year, yet the economy continues to expand.- Labour Market: The labour market remains relatively strong with unemployment at 4.0%. However, potential stress looms due to high wages, which contribute to sustained inflation—an issue the Federal Reserve aims to mitigate.- Consumer Spending: Consumer spending has been resilient but is expected to slow as pandemic savings deplete.- Trade Deficit and Federal Deficits: The trade deficit has widened, and federal deficits continue to grow, leading to significant interest payments on national debt.- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, pose additional risks to the economy.The market is currently driven by forward expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening and interest rate decisions.Given these factors, analysts anticipate a strong close for Q2 and expect indices to rise.Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investments should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.#Traders #Trading #Economics #Fundamentals #USeconomy #PCE #Inflation #InterestRates #FED #TheFED #USinflation #USgrowth #USmarket #NYSE #SP500 #Investing #USstocks #BringTheBull #ZMC

3

1 Comment

US Market Update - June 24, 2024As we enter the final week of June, which also concludes the second quarter of 2024, market activity is expected to be relatively subdued. The primary focus this week will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, followed by the Federal Monetary Policy Report on Friday. Given the scarcity of major market-moving news, we anticipate low trading volumes and volatility.Monetary Policy DevelopmentsMonetary policy easing is becoming more prevalent, especially in light of the US Federal Reserve's current stance. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) implemented an initial 25-basis point cut to its key interest rate. Although the ECB indicated a cautious approach to further rate cuts, the global economic slowdown is likely to necessitate at least two more cuts this year.In a recent statement, the ECB highlighted several challenges facing Eurozone countries, including significant fiscal burdens due to ageing populations, increased defence spending, and climate change. These factors underscore the urgency for these countries to reduce their high debt levels.Market OutlookWith the Fed's inaction, other central banks are taking measures to stimulate their economies. This trend of monetary easing could have broader implications for global financial markets, particularly in terms of currency valuations and capital flows.Investors should monitor the upcoming PCE data and the Federal Monetary Policy Report for any signals that might influence market directions. As always, maintaining a strategic approach and considering the broader economic context will be crucial for navigating the current market environment.Key Points to Watch This Week:- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index:** Key inflation data to be released this week.- Federal Monetary Policy Report:** Scheduled for Friday, providing insights into the Fed's economic outlook and policy direction.- ECB's Monetary Easing:** Watch for further developments and their impact on global markets.Given the expected low market activity, traders and investors might find fewer opportunities for significant moves. However, staying informed and prepared for any unexpected developments remains essential.Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investments should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.#USMarketUpdate #Fed #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #ECB #InterestRates #GlobalEconomy #FinancialMarkets #BringTheBull #ZMC

4

US Market Update - 21.06.2024In recent developments, the Bank of England (BoE) has maintained its interest rates at 5.25%, as anticipated. However, in an unexpected move, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has led the way by reducing interest rates by 25 basis points. This surprising decision has increased demand for the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc (CHF) and other major currencies. Given that Switzerland’s inflation mildly rose to 1.4% in May, this rate cut was unforeseen.Adding to the market dynamics, the European Central Bank (ECB) has announced the commencement of its rate cuts cycle starting June 6th, signaling a shift in its monetary policy.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, is influenced by the following weights:1. Euro (EUR):** 57.6%2. Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6%3. British Pound (GBP): 11.9%4. Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1%5. Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2%6. Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6%These percentages reflect the importance and trade volume of each currency relative to the U.S. dollar. As of yesterday, Switzerland’s real interest rate stands at -0.15%.Today's Focus: FED's Monetary Policy ReleaseToday's key event is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy release, which will provide further guidance on the number of rate cuts planned and the inflation outlook. If the report aligns with analysts' forecasts or indicates more than one rate cut this year, we can expect the indices to rise while the U.S. Dollar falls.DisclaimerThis market update is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.#USMarketUpdate #FED #InterestRates #SNB #ECB #USDollar #ForexTrading #MarketAnalysis #Economy #FinancialNews #ZMC #BringTheBull

5

US Market Update 20.06.2024As the Federal Reserve postpones rate cuts, discussions of potential recessionary fears are resurfacing among economists. I believe the FED will take all necessary measures to prevent a recession, utilizing their extensive financial resources to manage monetary policy against inflation and economic downturns. This is a delicate period for the economy, and I am closely monitoring the situation.Today’s key market event is the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. As of yesterday, the UK's real interest rates stand at 5.25% - 2% = 3.25%, compared to the U.S. at 2.23%. Any rate changes by the BOE today will likely drive the GBP higher. It would require more than a 100bps rate cut by the BOE to push the GBP lower. Anticipate that indices will continue to rise in the medium to short term. Additionally, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims could further propel this movement if the figures exceed forecasts.Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #RecessionFears #BankOfEngland #InterestRates #GBP #EconomicOutlook #USJoblessClaims #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategies #ZMC #BringTheBull

4

This content isn’t available here

Access this content and more in the LinkedIn app

3

US Market Update - June 19, 2024🇺🇸 Juneteenth Holiday:The U.S. is observing Juneteenth today, a significant holiday commemorating the end of slavery. As a result, market volumes are expected to be lower. This reduced activity can lead to less liquidity and potentially more volatility in the markets.💹 U.K. Economic Data:The U.K. has announced a 2% inflation rate, down from 2.3% at the last reading. Today, the focus shifts to the release of U.K. CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data. These figures are crucial for understanding inflationary pressures and can significantly impact currency valuations.📈 Effective Interest Rate Calculation: Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation Rate (CPI)In this context, if the U.K.'s CPI and PPI data suggest a higher effective interest rate compared to other currencies, it would be strategic to consider buying GBP.🔑 Key InsightRemember the mantra, “Direction is King.” Identifying and following the market direction is paramount in trading. By focusing on the effective interest rates and the economic indicators, traders can make more informed decisions.#USMarketUpdate #Juneteenth #ForexTrading #InterestRates #CPI #PPI #TradingStrategy #FinancialMarkets #ZMC #BringTheBullDisclaimerThis post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investments should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.

3

US Market Update - June 18, 2024📈 All central banks, except for the Eurozone, are maintaining their interest rates to balance their currencies against the U.S. Dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its rates at 4.35%, with effective rates at 3.35%. Maintaining a higher rate than the U.S. Dollar is likely to push the AUD/USD pair higher.💡 Interest rates are currently the primary drivers of the markets, particularly affecting stocks, indices, and forex. For those trading currencies, it's crucial to consider the effective interest rates, especially if the currency is not a commodity currency. Below is a list of effective interest rates calculated by subtracting the inflation rate (CPI) from the nominal interest rate:- U.S.: 5.50% - 3.27% = 2.23%- Canada: 6.95% - 2.69% = 4.26%- U.K.: 5.25% - 2.3% = 2.95%- Eurozone: 4.25% - 2.4% = 1.85%- Australia: 4.35% - 1% = 3.35%- Japan: -0.10% - 2.5% = -2.6%📊 Today, the Eurozone's CPI data and U.S. retail sales figures are due for release. These reports have the potential to move the markets significantly. Traders should calculate the expected direction before making any trades.⚠️ Key Takeaway: In the current economic climate, interest rates are the main market drivers. Understanding and calculating the effective interest rates can help traders stay on the right side of market movements.#USMarketUpdate #InterestRates #Forex #StockMarket #EconomicData #Trading #FinancialMarkets #CPI #ZMC #BringTheBull #FundamentalAnalysis DisclaimerThis post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investments should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.

3

US Market In June 17, 2024As investors continue to digest the outcomes of the recent FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve's forward guidance on interest rates, the fundamental market landscape remains largely unchanged. The Fed has provided clear indications regarding market direction. Over the weekend, analysts responded by raising the S&P 500's year-end target to $5,600.A significant development that made headlines just before markets closed last week was Saudi Arabia's decision not to renew their "Petro Dollar" agreement with the United States. This shift means that oil will no longer be exclusively traded in U.S. Dollars. Instead, Saudi Arabia plans to explore alternative exchange mechanisms, including Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). This move has notable implications for the U.S. Dollar, which is expected to depreciate further as a result. While the effects of this decision will unfold over several months, it provides the U.S. government ample time to renegotiate terms and conditions for oil trade. A rapid depreciation of the U.S. Dollar could lead to inflationary pressures, potentially resulting in higher taxes and interest rates. Given that the U.S. is the largest consumer of oil globally, the likelihood of reaching a new agreement is high.Potential Impact:- U.S. Dollar: Short- Indices: LongThis analysis highlights the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their economic repercussions. Investors should remain vigilant and consider these factors when making informed investment decisions.Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and investments should be made based on individual risk tolerance and financial goals. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.#FedPolicy #USMarket #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #PetroDollar #OilTrade #USDollar #Inflation #InterestRates #ZMC #BringTheBull

2